Orlando--Where Draft Picks Happen

As promised I crunched some numbers on the 2007 and 2006 drafts. First, though, Tar Heel Fan has published a quote from the Denver Post noting that the Nuggets may be interested in Ty, at the #20 pick. While this is speculation, it does give Lawson more of a reason to stay in. As the 20 pick, Ty would probably secure an annual $1,250,000 salary, which, after taxes and agent fees, would give him a take home of $825,000 a year. That's $49,500 a month, which is about $49,500 more per month than he is making now. If he does start generating interest around the 20 spot then I see no reason why he should not go now. Certainly he is thinking about the chance of another injury and how that would impact him if he were to stay.

Back to Orlando and the numbers.

2008

• This year 69 underclassmen (not counting internationals) declared as early-entry candidates for the NBA draft. This includes 1 high school senior, 13 freshmen, 16 sophomores, 38 juniors, and 1 post-graduate student.

2007

• Last year 59 underclassmen (not counting the international players) declared as early-entries for the NBA draft. Of those, 7 were freshmen, 7 sophomores, and 45 juniors.
• Out of the 59, 27 withdrew before the deadline, 27 were drafted, and 5 were undrafted.
• Out of the 59 underclassmen, 25 were invited to the Orlando camp (6 freshmen, 3 sophomores, and 16 juniors). Of those 25, 20 were drafted (15in the first round), and 5 withdrew their names before the deadline.
• Of the remaining 34 underclassmen not invited to Orlando, 7 were actually drafted (3 in the first round), 22 withdrew their names before the deadline, and 5 were undrafted.

2006

• In 2006, 62 underclassmen (again without internat players) declared as early-entries. Of those, 1 was a high school senior, 3 freshmen, 18 sophomores, and 40 juniors.
• 26 of the original 62 withdrew before the deadline, 23 were drafted, and a staggering 13 were left out of the draft.
• 25 underclassmen (again, no international players counted in my stats) in 2006 were invited to the Orlando camp (2 freshmen, 7 sophomores, and 16 juniors). Of those, 14 were drafted (11 in the first round), 7 withdrew their names before the deadline, and 4 were not drafted.
• Of the 37 who were not invited to Orlando, 9 were drafted, 19 withdrew before the deadline, and 9 were not drafted.

So what does it all mean?

Well, it seems that in 2007, at least, the odds were pretty good that an invite to Orlando meant that the NBA folks were pretty certain who was going to be drafted and were just using the camp as a way to ascertain where they would go. 80% of those attending were drafted, with the remaining 20% withdrawing.

2006 was quite different, with only 56% of the attendees being drafted, and 16% not even drafted.

I would have gone back farther, but I have a family, you know, and they like to see me every now and then. So, based on this two year synopsis, an invite to Orlando offers a more than average shot at being drafted. And if we go by the 25-invited rule, the 2008 Orlando invitee list goes something like this:

Freshmen (10):

Derrick Rose

Michael Beasley

Jerryd Bayless

OJ Mayo

Anthony Randolph

DeAndre Jordan

Kevin Love

Eric Gordon

Donte Greene

Kosta Koufos

Sophomores (9):

Brook Lopez

Robin Lopez

Darrell Arthur

Russell Westbrook

JaVale McGee

Chase Budinger

DJ Augustin

Ty Lawson

Wayne Ellington

Juniors (6):

Joe Alexander

CDR

Mario Chalmers

Lester Hudson

Richard Hendrix

Brandon Rush

If JJ Hickson is really still interested in the draft then add him and take out Lester Hudson or Wayne.

Is there a chance for Danny Green to secure an invite to Orlando? I don't see it. There are too many quality names on this list to leave out the 3 or 5 it would take to get him in. And if Wayne does not lap up one of those last 3 spots, then he is out as well.

As everyone but my 8-year-old has noted, this is an extremely strong freshman-sophomore heavy draft. While it is to me a no-brainer that Danny and Wayne are not ready to put their names in the hat, and even though I just said Ty would (or even should if the money is the thing) go even if he is picked in the low 20's, it would be better if all three were to stay. Next year's draft pool is not as top-heavy in the PG/SG/SF columns, and, as we have seen, coming into the draft with a national championship--which the Heels have a better-than-average chance of securing if everyone hangs around--bumps a player's stock up.